December 14th, Glassnode co-founder Negentropic wrote, "The market is not afraid of tightening (rate hikes), but is afraid of uncertainty. The Bank of Japan's policy normalization has brought a clear expectation to the global funding environment, even though leverage will be under pressure in the short term.Yen carry trades have significantly contracted, and volatility implies opportunity. Bitcoin often strengthens after policy pressure is released, rather than before. With reduced chaos, signals are strengthened. This seems to be preparing for asymmetric upside risk."

December 14th, the probability of the prediction "Bitcoin will once again rise to $100,000 this year" on Polymarket is currently 25%. Furthermore, the probability of it rising to $110,000 again is currently 4%, and the probability of dropping below $80,000 is currently 22%.

December 14, according to Alternative data, today's cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 21 (yesterday was 23), and the market is still in a state of "extreme fear".Note: The Fear Index threshold is 0-100, including indicators: Volatility (25%) + Market Volume (25%) + Social Media Sentiment (15%) + Market Surveys (15%) + Bitcoin's Dominance (10%) + Google Trends (10%).

December 14th, On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on December 26th, covering quarterly options, yearly options, and large-scale structured products. This implies that the BTC derivatives market will experience a "concentrated risk exposure clearing and repricing" at the end of the year, where the price may be structurally constrained before expiration but uncertainty will increase post-expiration.From a data perspective, there is a significant amount of Open Interest (OI) stacking at the two closest positions to the current BTC spot price, which are: Put at $85,000: 14,674 BTC and Call at $100,000: 18,116 BTC. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior but rather high-level long-term funds, most likely entities holding a large amount of BTC spot, such as ETF hedging desks, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and so on.The Put at a $85,000 strike price is the buyer's "active party," reflecting a strong downside risk hedging demand in the market at that price level. Similarly, the significant Call OI stacking at a $100,000 strike price is not fundamentally "the market being bullish at this level," but rather long-term funds willing to relinquish upside potential at that price level in exchange for current certainty of cash flow and overall risk control. By buying Puts below and selling Calls above, the distribution of BTC returns is compressed within a tolerable range. With OI already highly formed, this $85,000–$100,000 option corridor will structurally influence the BTC price before December 26th, with "implicit upward suppression, passive buffering downward, and fluctuation in the middle range."

December 14th. Wang Yongli, former Vice President of a Chinese bank, stated in an article on WeChat Official Account that since May 2025, the United States and Hong Kong, China have been actively promoting stablecoin and cryptocurrency (digital asset) legislation. The United States has also been pushing legislation to ban the issuance of a digital dollar, triggering a global surge in stablecoin and cryptocurrency legislation and development. This has sparked a debate in China on whether it should vigorously promote RMB stablecoin legislation and development, as well as whether to further advance the development of the digital RMB. Subsequently, the People's Bank of China announced that it would optimize the positioning of the digital RMB in the currency hierarchy, further improve the digital RMB management system, and actively promote the development of the digital RMB. On November 28th, the People's Bank of China and 13 other departments jointly held a "Coordination Mechanism Meeting to Combat Virtual Currency Trading Speculation," clarifying that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency, emphasizing the continued adherence to the prohibitive policy on virtual currency, and the ongoing crackdown on virtual currency-related illegal financial activities. Therefore, China is resolutely promoting the development of the digital RMB, and the policy orientation of decisively curbing virtual currency has been fully determined.Wang Yongli also pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the innovative development of the digital RMB and promote its widespread domestic and international use, to quickly establish its unique advantage in international payments, and to follow the path of Chinese success in digital currency development.

December 13th, according to CoinDesk, industry insiders pointed out that the machine learning in the cryptocurrency trading field has not yet experienced a comprehensive popularization stage similar to the "iPhone moment," but AI-driven automated trading agents are rapidly approaching this tipping point. With the improvement of algorithm customization and reinforcement learning capabilities, a new generation of AI trading models is no longer simply pursuing absolute profit and loss (P&L), but is introducing risk-adjusted metrics such as Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and Value at Risk (VaR) to dynamically balance risk and return in different market conditions.Michael Sena, Chief Marketing Officer of Recall Labs, stated that in recent AI trading competitions, specially customized and optimized trading agents significantly outperformed general large models, with the latter only slightly outperforming the market when executing trades autonomously. The results show that dedicated trading agents with additional logic, reasoning, and data sources are gradually surpassing basic models.However, the "democratization" of AI trading has also raised concerns about whether Alpha advantage will be quickly eroded. Sena pointed out that those who can truly benefit in the long run will still be those who have the resources to develop proprietary, specialized tools. The most promising form in the future may be an "intelligent investment portfolio manager" driven by AI but still allowing users to set strategy preferences and risk parameters.

December 13th, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, the "BTC OG Insider Whale" address has accumulated a unrealized loss of over 12 million USD, including:· 5x long 175,595 ETH, entry price $3173.34, liquidation price $1943.28, unrealized loss $9.77 million;· 5x long 1000 BTC, entry price $91,506.7, unrealized loss $1.31 million;· 20x long 25,000 SOL, entry price $137.53, unrealized loss $1.05 million.

December 13th, according to HyperInsight monitoring, the "Big Brother Whale" Huang Licheng's address holds a long position of 3,875 ETH, currently with a unrealized loss of over $300,000. The opening price was $3,191.89, and the liquidation price is $3,053.81.The address has suffered a weekly loss of $1.55 million and a monthly loss of $6.31 million.

December 13th, according to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, there was a total of $311 million in liquidations across the entire network, with $265 million in long liquidations and $45.5184 million in short liquidations.In the past 24 hours, a total of 101,384 people were liquidated globally, with the largest single liquidation occurring on Hyperliquid - ETH-USD worth $5.6806 million.

December 13th, according to HTX market data, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000, with a 24-hour decrease of 2.17%.

December 13th: Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut as scheduled this week and the release of a more dovish signal than expected, the reality challenge faced by the artificial intelligence field has led to a complex and divergent trend in the US stock and bond markets. This week, long-term US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by about 5 basis points during the "Fed Rate Cut Week." The macro outlook for next week is as follows:Monday 22:30: Federal Reserve Governor Milan speaks;Monday 23:30: FOMC Permanent Voter and New York Fed President Williams speaks on the economic outlook;Thursday 01:30: 2027 FOMC Voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook;Thursday 21:30: US November Unadjusted CPI YoY/Core CPI YoY, US November Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM/Core CPI MoM;Thursday 21:30: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13th;Friday 23:00: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, US December 1-year Inflation Rate Expectation final.Next week's release of US CPI data will be a key turning point for the US dollar. If the CPI data is lower than expected (the latest data is 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it will further confirm the rationale of the Fed's rate cuts, and the US dollar may face further downward pressure; otherwise, it may reverse this trend.

December 13th, according to The Wall Street Journal, on Friday, U.S. President Trump stated that Kevin Warsh has risen to the top of his next Federal Reserve Chair candidate list, but other candidates are still in the running. Previously seen as a candidate on Trump's list but not the frontrunner, Warsh, who himself served as a Fed governor, apparently gained further favor after meeting with Trump on Wednesday."Yes, I do. I think he is," according to interview content released Friday afternoon, when asked if Warsh is at the top, Trump told the media so. Referring to the frontrunner widely favored by the previously predicted market, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Trump said, "I think both Kevins are great." "I think there are several other excellent candidates," he added.Hassett had previously emerged as the frontrunner. In public, when asked about the possibility of taking over the position, he has always been cautious, only stating that he would accept if invited. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts expressed on Thursday on the NBC financial channel her concern that Trump would appoint a "puppet" as Fed chair to carry out his wishes.In addition to emphasizing Warsh's potential appointment to the position, Trump once again reiterated his past view that the Fed Chair should consult with the President on interest rate decisions. This move would overturn the tradition of the Fed maintaining independence.

December 13th. Informed sources revealed that due to several key unresolved disputes, negotiations in the U.S. Senate regarding the cryptocurrency "Market Structure Bill" may be delayed until January next year. This bill is currently the most critical lobbying target in the crypto industry, but as the holidays approach, a multi-party game among Democrats, Republicans, the White House, and the crypto industry has yet to reach a consensus.The core issues still to be finalized include: government officials' involvement in the ethical standards of digital assets (especially involving former President Trump), whether stablecoins can be linked to yields, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) scope of authority in token regulation, and the regulatory boundaries of Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Despite the differences, the pace and intensity of the Senate negotiations remain high, and industry lobbyists are hopeful that the bill will enter formal committee consideration in the coming weeks.

December 13, in the past 24 hours, the cumulative net outflow of Ethereum from CEX was 69,300 ETH, with the top three outflow amounts from CEX as follows:· Coinbase Pro, outflow of 72,900 ETH;· Gate, outflow of 265.93 ETH;· Gemini, outflow of 25.75 ETH.In addition, Bybit saw an inflow of 2,031.03 ETH, ranking first in the inflow list.

December 13th, Tokenization platform Huma Finance, blockchain debt provider Obligate, and TradeFlow Capital announced at the Solana Breakpoint conference that the three parties have reached a partnership to collaborate on providing Solana-based stablecoin liquidity for global rare earth mineral trading.